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产能周期的基础理论和规律特征——正解新周期之一

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月22日 01:45:34
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(鉴)(于)(各)(界)(对)(“新)(周)(期)(”的)(广)(泛)(讨)(论)(以)(及)(可)(能)(存)(在)(的)(误)(解)(,本)(研)(究)(系)(列)(重)(点)(介)(绍)(产)(能)(周)(期)(,以)(期)(这)(场)(讨)(论)(能)(够)(基)(于)(规)(范)(的)(范)(式)(和)(共)(同)(的)(语)(境)(。我)(们)(尝)(试)(从)(基)(础)(理)(论)(、国)(际)(经)(验)(、历)(史)(规)(律)(、未)(来)(展)(望)(、宏)(观)(中)(观)(微)(观)(等)(多)(维)(度)(系)(统)(阐)(述)(“新)(周)(期)(”,部)(分)(研)(究)(成)(果)(为)(作)(者)(2012年)(在)(国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(主)(持)(的)(课)(题)(《我)(国)(设)(备)(投)(资)(周)(期)(研)(究)(》成)(果)(。在)(过)(去)(五)(年)(我)(们)(进)(行)(了)(长)(期)(跟)(踪)(研)(究)(,当)(然)(这)(次)(“新)(周)(期)(”讨)(论)(也)(触)(发)(我)(们)(更)(深)(入)(地)(思)(考)(,也)(吸)(收)(了)(同)(行)(有)(益)(的)(研)(究)(成)(果)(。
期)(望)(这)(场)(新)(周)(期)(讨)(论)(基)(于)(扎)(实)(的)(证)(据)(、密)(实)(的)(逻)(辑)(和)(理)(性)(的)(推)(演)(,一)(起)(推)(动)(研)(究)(进)(步)(,避)(免)(中)(国)(式)(辩)(论)(:以)(掌)(握)(绝)(对)(真)(理)(自)(居)(、人)(身)(攻)(击)(、上)(纲)(上)(线)(。任)(何)(一)(个)(新)(生)(事)(物)(或)(商)(机)(的)(到)(来)(,都)(将)(经)(历)(四)(个)(阶)(段)(:“看)(不)(见)(”、“看)(不)(起)(”、“看)(不)(懂)(”、最)(后)(“来)(不)(及)(”。面)(对)(不)(确)(定)(性)(的)(未)(来)(,我)(们)(一)(起)(怀)(着)(对)(市)(场)(的)(敬)(畏)(之)(心)(和)(好)(奇)(之)(心)(,开)(启)(探)(索)(的)(旅)(程)(。
1什)(么)(是)(经)(济)(周)(期)(
增)(长)(与)(波)(动)(是)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(研)(究)(的)(永)(恒)(主)(题)(,也)(是)(经)(济)(形)(势)(分)(析)(最)(基)(础)(的)(框)(架)(体)(系)(,经)(济)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(决)(定)(了)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(长)(期)(均)(衡)(趋)(势)(,经)(济)(周)(期)(决)(定)(了)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(波)(动)(态)(势)(。经)(济)(总)(是)(从)(复)(苏)(、繁)(荣)(、衰)(退)(到)(萧)(条)(周)(而)(复)(始)(地)(发)(生)(着)(,每)(个)(人)(都)(身)(处)(其)(中)(。
经)(济)(周)(期)(主)(要)(受)(商)(业)(周)(期)(、政)(治)(周)(期)(、社)(会)(周)(期)(等)(影)(响)(,其)(中)(,商)(业)(周)(期)(是)(市)(场)(经)(济)(中)(由)(个)(人)(或)(企)(业)(自)(主)(行)(为)(引)(发)(的)(商)(业)(律)(动)(,是)(进)(行)(经)(济)(形)(势)(分)(析)(和)(实)(施)(反)(周)(期)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(基)(础)(。现)(实)(中)(的)(经)(济)(运)(行)(潜)(势)(由)(多)(股)(商)(业)(周)(期)(力)(量)(叠)(加)(而)(成)(。
现)(代)(经)(典)(经)(济)(周)(期)(理)(论)(归)(纳)(出)(了)(几)(大)(典)(型)(商)(业)(周)(期)(:短)(波)(的)(农)(业)(周)(期)((又)(称)(蛛)(网)(周)(期)()揭)(示)(的)(是)(农)(业)(对)(价)(格)(的)(生)(产)(反)(馈)(周)(期)(,1年)(左)(右)(;中)(短)(波)(的)(库)(存)(周)(期)((又)(称)(基)(钦)(周)(期)()揭)(示)(的)(是)(工)(商)(业)(部)(门)(的)(存)(货)(调)(整)(周)(期)(,3-4年)(左)(右)(;中)(长)(波)(的)(设)(备)(投)(资)(周)(期)((又)(称)(朱)(格)(拉)(周)(期)()揭)(示)(的)(是)(产)(业)(在)(生)(产)(设)(备)(和)(基)(础)(设)(施)(的)(循)(环)(投)(资)(活)(动)(,6-11年)(左)(右)(;长)(波)(的)(建)(筑)(周)(期)((又)(称)(库)(兹)(涅)(茨)(周)(期)()主)(要)(是)(住)(房)(建)(设)(活)(动)(导)(致)(的)(,20-40年)(左)(右)(;超)(长)(波)(的)(创)(新)(周)(期)((又)(称)(康)(德)(拉)(耶)(夫)(周)(期)()是)(由)(创)(新)(活)(动)(的)(集)(聚)(发)(生)(所)(致)(,50-70年)(左)(右)(。金)(融)(是)(实)(体)(的)(映)(射)(,商)(业)(周)(期)(的)(另)(一)(面)(是)(金)(融)(周)(期)(、信)(贷)(周)(期)(、杠)(杆)(周)(期)(和)(债)(务)(周)(期)(。
长)(期)(以)(来)(,人)(们)(一)(直)(在)(探)(索)(造)(成)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(原)(因)(,经)(济)(周)(期)(领)(域)(的)(研)(究)(进)(展)(加)(深)(了)(人)(们)(对)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(理)(解)(,也)(促)(进)(了)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(学)(科)(的)(发)(展)(。
从)(大)(类)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(角)(度)(,投)(资)(时)(钟)(揭)(示)(了)(在)(经)(济)(周)(期)(不)(同)(阶)(段)(大)(类)(资)(产)(的)(相)(对)(表)(现)(,是)(进)(行)(大)(类)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(基)(础)(方)(法)(之)(一)(,其)(背)(后)(的)(核)(心)(是)(对)(经)(济)(周)(期)(阶)(段)(的)(预)(判)(。
从)(公)(共)(政)(策)(的)(角)(度)(,把)(握)(商)(业)(周)(期)(运)(行)(规)(律)(,是)(适)(时)(、适)(度)(进)(行)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(基)(础)(,是)(保)(持)(经)(济)(平)(稳)(运)(行)(的)(关)(键)(。宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(核)(心)(是)(预)(判)(经)(济)(形)(势)(并)(实)(施)(反)(周)(期)(操)(作)(,通)(过)(削)(峰)(填)(谷)(式)(的)(操)(作)(,可)(以)(一)(定)(程)(度)(熨)(平)(波)(动)(。当)(然)(,公)(共)(政)(策)(是)(熨)(平)(还)(是)(放)(大)(了)(经)(济)(周)(期)(波)(动)(,目)(前)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(研)(究)(领)(域)(存)(在)(分)(歧)(。
2产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(是)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(中)(周)(期)(、主)(周)(期)(
产)(能)(是)(指)(在)(给)(定)(的)(技)(术)(条)(件)(下)(,资)(本)(和)(劳)(动)(力)(被)(充)(分)(利)(用)(后)(所)(能)(达)(到)(的)(最)(高)(产)(出)(。
产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(是)(经)(济)(波)(动)(中)(的)(主)(周)(期)(,长)(度)(6-11年)(,主)(要)(内)(容)(是)(设)(备)(投)(资)(和)(就)(业)(雇)(佣)(的)(周)(期)(性)(调)(整)(。宏)(观)(经)(济)(运)(行)(在)(微)(观)(上)(表)(现)(为)(企)(业)(产)(能)(调)(整)(活)(动)((设)(备)(投)(资)(、就)(业)(雇)(佣)(等)(),企)(业)(的)(扩)(产)(能)(或)(去)(产)(能)(行)(为)(表)(明)(了)(对)(未)(来)(国)(民)(经)(济)(景)(气)(的)(预)(期)(。从)(其)(它)(商)(业)(周)(期)(与)(产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(的)(关)(系)(看)(,短)(期)(的)(库)(存)(调)(整)(是)(中)(期)(产)(能)(调)(整)(的)(缓)(冲)(带)(,长)(期)(的)(创)(新)(周)(期)(是)(技)(术)(革)(命)(引)(发)(的)(商)(业)(机)(会)(和)(产)(能)(投)(资)(浪)(潮)(。
产)(能)(周)(期)(分)(为)(四)(个)(阶)(段)(:第)(一)(个)(阶)(段)(,在)(经)(济)(繁)(荣)(的)(时)(候)(,企)(业)(家)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(,导)(致)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(以)(及)(随)(后)(的)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(。第)(二)(个)(阶)(段)(,由)(于)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,供)(过)(于)(求)(,供)(求)(格)(局)(恶)(化)(,引)(发)(通)(缩)(。在)(漫)(长)(通)(缩)(过)(程)(中)(,中)(小)(企)(业)(退)(出)(,大)(企)(业)(淘)(汰)(落)(后)(产)(能)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(供)(给)(出)(清)(的)(过)(程)(。第)(三)(个)(阶)(段)(,产)(能)(出)(清)(尾)(声)(,行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(大)(幅)(提)(升)(,剩)(者)(为)(王)(,企)(业)(利)(润)(改)(善)(,开)(始)(修)(复)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(,为)(新)(一)(轮)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(蓄)(积)(力)(量)(。但)(因)(为)(刚)(刚)(过)(完)(冬)(天)(,企)(业)(对)(未)(来)(前)(景)(仍)(然)(谨)(慎)(,新)(增)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(不)(是)(很)(明)(显)(。第)(四)(个)(阶)(段)(,随)(着)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(持)(续)(改)(善)(和)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(,我)(们)(终)(会)(看)(到)(新)(的)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(,一)(开)(始)(带)(动)(需)(求)(,后)(期)(增)(加)(供)(给)(。
主)(流)(经)(济)(学)(家)(非)(常)(重)(视)(产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(,如)(马)(克)(思)(、熊)(彼)(特)(、凯)(恩)(斯)(、萨)(缪)(尔)(森)(、米)(切)(尔)(、伯)(恩)(斯)(、哈)(耶)(克)(、米)(塞)(斯)(等)(。诞)(生)(了)(大)(量)(经)(典)(理)(论)(:实)(业)(经)(济)(周)(期)(理)(论)(、过)(度)(投)(资)(理)(论)(、有)(效)(需)(求)(不)(足)(、真)(实)(经)(济)(周)(期)(理)(论)(、乘)(数)(-加)(速)(数)(模)(型)(等)(。
产)(能)(利)(用)(率)((设)(备)(利)(用)(率)(、就)(业)(率)(等)()是)(判)(断)(经)(济)(形)(势)(的)(风)(向)(标)(,美)(、欧)(、日)(等)(发)(达)(国)(家)(普)(遍)(重)(视)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(的)(统)(计)(和)(分)(析)(,目)(前)(我)(国)(统)(计)(空)(白)(。
3产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(的)(定)(义)(与)(内)(涵)(
基)(于)(规)(范)(研)(究)(的)(要)(求)(,本)(文)(首)(先)(对)(产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(、设)(备)(投)(资)(周)(期)(等)(基)(本)(概)(念)(进)(行)(界)(定)(。
产)(能)(投)(资)(:设)(备)(投)(资)(是)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(主)(要)(组)(成)(部)(分)(之)(一)(,其)(他)(的)(产)(能)(投)(资)(还)(包)(括)(劳)(动)(力)(雇)(佣)(、厂)(房)(投)(资)(、商)(业)(地)(产)(投)(资)(等)(。
设)(备)(投)(资)(:广)(义)(的)(设)(备)(投)(资)(不)(仅)(包)(括)(机)(器)(设)(备)(投)(资)(,还)(包)(括)(相)(关)(厂)(房)(建)(造)(、辅)(助)(性)(工)(器)(具)(购)(置)(、无)(形)(资)(产)(支)(出)(等)(。设)(备)(投)(资)(主)(要)(集)(中)(在)(制)(造)(业)(、建)(筑)(业)(、交)(通)(运)(输)(业)(等)(领)(域)(。
产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(:是)(指)(设)(备)(投)(资)(、就)(业)(雇)(佣)(等)(产)(能)(投)(资)(的)(周)(期)(性)(扩)(张)(以)(及)(收)(缩)(调)(整)(行)(为)(。
设)(备)(投)(资)(周)(期)(:属)(于)(产)(能)(周)(期)(的)(主)(要)(组)(成)(部)(分)(之)(一)(,又)(称)(资)(本)(性)(支)(出)(周)(期)(,或)(朱)(格)(拉)(周)(期)(,是)(指)(企)(业)(在)(耐)(用)(设)(备)(及)(其)(基)(础)(结)(构)(上)(的)(周)(期)(性)(支)(出)(活)(动)(。
装)(备)(制)(造)(业)(:“生)(产)(机)(器)(的)(机)(器)(制)(造)(业)(”。按)(照)(国)(民)(经)(济)(行)(业)(39部)(门)(分)(类)(,它)(包)(括)(金)(属)(制)(品)(业)(、通)(用)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(、专)(用)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(、交)(通)(运)(输)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(、电)(气)(机)(械)(及)(器)(材)(制)(造)(业)(、通)(信)(设)(备)(计)(算)(机)(及)(其)(他)(电)(子)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(、仪)(器)(仪)(表)(及)(文)(化)(办)(公)(用)(机)(械)(制)(造)(业)(7大)(类)(中)(扣)(除)(了)(有)(关)(消)(费)(类)(产)(业)(制)(造)(业)(小)(类)(后)(的)(186个)(小)(类)(,是)(第)(一)(大)(工)(业)(门)(类)(。2012年)(的)(41部)(门)(行)(业)(分)(类)(中)(变)(成)(8大)(类)(,交)(通)(运)(输)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(拆)(分)(为)(汽)(车)(制)(造)(业)(与)(铁)(路)(、船)(舶)(、航)(空)(航)(天)(和)(其)(它)(运)(输)(设)(备)(制)(造)(业)(。2016年)(装)(备)(制)(造)(相)(关)(产)(业)(占)(GDP比)(重)(11.0%,占)(工)(业)(增)(加)(值)(比)(重)(32.9%。2016年)(机)(械)(及)(运)(输)(设)(备)(出)(口)(占)(出)(口)(货)(物)(总)(额)(的)(46.9%。
4产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(的)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(与)(放)(大)(机)(制)(
产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(存)(在)(一)(些)(初)(始)(的)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(,在)(传)(导)(过)(程)(中)(,又)(存)(在)(放)(大)(机)(制)(,进)(而)(对)(经)(济)(运)(行)(形)(成)(广)(泛)(而)(深)(入)(的)(影)(响)(。本)(部)(分)(旨)(在)(归)(纳)(梳)(理)(国)(内)(外)(有)(关)(研)(究)(成)(果)(。
4.1驱)(动)(因)(素)(
造)(成)(经)(济)(波)(动)(的)(驱)(动)(因)(素)(,来)(自)(自)(然)(、政)(治)(、社)(会)(、人)(性)(以)(及)(经)(济)(自)(身)(等)(各)(个)(方)(面)(。
1)实)(际)(经)(济)(周)(期)(因)(素)(。本)(部)(分)(把)(所)(有)(归)(因)(于)(实)(际)(经)(济)(运)(行)(的)(解)(释)(统)(称)(为)(实)(际)(经)(济)(周)(期)(因)(素)(,包)(括)(过)(度)(投)(资)(理)(论)(、有)(效)(需)(求)(不)(足)(理)(论)(、实)(业)(经)(济)(周)(期)(理)(论)(、创)(新)(理)(论)(、凯)(恩)(斯)(主)(义)(以)(及)(后)(凯)(恩)(斯)(主)(义)(的)(相)(关)(理)(论)(,等)(等)(。
在)(现)(代)(化)(大)(生)(产)(的)(时)(代)(,由)(于)(生)(产)(和)(消)(费)(在)(时)(间)(、空)(间)(和)(主)(体)(上)(是)(分)(离)(的)(,因)(此)(很)(难)(实)(现)(产)(能)(投)(资)(与)(最)(终)(需)(求)(的)(完)(美)(匹)(配)(,波)(动)(必)(然)(产)(生)(。
过)(度)(投)(资)(理)(论)(认)(为)(,在)(经)(济)(繁)(荣)(时)(投)(资)(者)(对)(未)(来)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(,不)(断)(加)(大)(投)(资)(,最)(终)(导)(致)(生)(产)(超)(过)(由)(消)(费)(和)(出)(口)(决)(定)(的)(有)(效)(需)(求)(从)(而)(引)(发)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,或)(者)(导)(致)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(超)(过)(原)(材)(料)(或)(劳)(动)(力)(供)(给)(瓶)(颈)(,工)(资)(和)(原)(材)(料)(成)(本)(上)(升)(侵)(蚀)(了)(生)(产)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(。
凯)(恩)(斯)(强)(调)(有)(效)(需)(求)(,认)(为)(私)(人)(投)(资)(是)(整)(个)(周)(期)(过)(程)(中)(的)(易)(变)(和)(不)(稳)(定)(因)(素)(。凯)(恩)(斯)(反)(对)(古)(典)(理)(论)(关)(于)(产)(品)(和)(就)(业)(市)(场)(出)(清)(的)(假)(设)(,认)(为)(由)(于)(工)(资)(和)(价)(格)(存)(在)(刚)(性)(,市)(场)(很)(难)(自)(我)(实)(现)(均)(衡)(。
实)(业)(经)(济)(周)(期)(理)(论)(认)(为)(投)(资)(由)(企)(业)(的)(利)(润)(驱)(动)(,而)(利)(润)(由)(成)(本)(和)(价)(格)(决)(定)(并)(周)(期)(性)(地)(波)(动)(,经)(济)(周)(期)(性)(波)(动)(的)(过)(程)(同)(时)(也)(是)(产)(能)(调)(整)(的)(过)(程)(,一)(轮)(完)(整)(的)(周)(期)(表)(现)(为)(:经)(济)(复)(苏)(→产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(提)(高)(→企)(业)(扩)(大)(产)(能)(→新)(建)(产)(能)(投)(产)(达)(产)(并)(持)(续)(释)(放)(生)(产)(能)(力)(→经)(济)(增)(长)(超)(过)(由)(设)(备)(、资)(源)(和)(劳)(动)(力)(等)(决)(定)(的)(潜)(在)(增)(长)(率)(,引)(发)(通)(膨)(,成)(本)(侵)(蚀)(利)(润)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(→经)(济)(回)(调)(→产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(下)(降)(、设)(备)(闲)(置)(、产)(能)(过)(剩)(、通)(缩)(→去)(产)(能)(化)(、企)(业)(放)(缓)(设)(备)(采)(购)(和)(劳)(动)(力)(雇)(佣)(来)(消)(化)(现)(有)(产)(能)(→物)(价)(下)(跌)(、企)(业)(成)(本)(下)(降)(、刺)(激)(政)(策)(→供)(给)(出)(清)(进)(入)(尾)(声)(、产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(恢)(复)(、企)(业)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(→新)(一)(轮)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(和)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(。
创)(新)(理)(论)(认)(为)(创)(新)(的)(集)(聚)(发)(生)(及)(其)(带)(动)(的)(产)(业)(投)(资)(浪)(潮)(是)(导)(致)(经)(济)(从)(繁)(荣)(到)(萧)(条)(的)(根)(本)(原)(因)(。
2)设)(备)(寿)(命)(周)(期)(。设)(备)(存)(在)(使)(用)(寿)(命)(,经)(济)(中)(存)(在)(大)(规)(模)(的)(设)(备)(更)(新)(替)(换)(活)(动)(。现)(代)(设)(备)(的)(寿)(命)(,不)(仅)(要)(考)(虑)(物)(理)(寿)(命)(,还)(要)(考)(虑)(技)(术)(寿)(命)(和)(经)(济)(寿)(命)(。首)(先)(,设)(备)(的)(物)(理)(寿)(命)(,又)(称)(自)(然)(寿)(命)(、物)(质)(寿)(命)(,是)(指)(设)(备)(从)(投)(入)(使)(用)(开)(始)(,直)(到)(因)(物)(质)(磨)(损)(而)(不)(能)(继)(续)(使)(用)(、报)(废)(为)(止)(所)(经)(历)(的)(时)(间)(。物)(理)(寿)(命)(主)(要)(是)(由)(设)(备)(的)(有)(形)(磨)(损)(所)(决)(定)(的)(。其)(次)(,设)(备)(的)(技)(术)(寿)(命)(,又)(称)(有)(效)(寿)(命)(,是)(指)(从)(设)(备)(开)(始)(使)(用)(到)(因)(技)(术)(落)(后)(而)(被)(淘)(汰)(所)(延)(续)(的)(时)(间)(。技)(术)(寿)(命)(主)(要)(是)(由)(设)(备)(的)(无)(形)(磨)(损)(所)(决)(定)(的)(,它)(一)(般)(比)(自)(然)(寿)(命)(要)(短)(。科)(学)(技)(术)(进)(步)(越)(快)(,技)(术)(寿)(命)(越)(短)(。最)(后)(,设)(备)(的)(经)(济)(寿)(命)(,又)(称)(效)(益)(寿)(命)(,是)(指)(设)(备)(从)(投)(入)(使)(用)(开)(始)(,到)(继)(续)(使)(用)(经)(济)(效)(益)(上)(不)(合)(理)(而)(被)(更)(新)(所)(经)(历)(的)(时)(间)(。效)(益)(寿)(命)(是)(由)(维)(护)(费)(用)(的)(提)(高)(和)(使)(用)(价)(值)(的)(降)(低)(所)(决)(定)(的)(。
3)政)(治)(周)(期)(。民)(选)(政)(府)(普)(遍)(存)(在)(明)(显)(的)(政)(治)(经)(济)(周)(期)(,执)(政)(党)(为)(了)(获)(取)(连)(任)(,会)(在)(大)(选)(前)(的)(一)(两)(年)(扩)(大)(支)(出)(、刺)(激)(经)(济)(;而)(大)(选)(后)(获)(胜)(的)(政)(党)(则)(必)(须)(面)(对)(平)(衡)(预)(算)(收)(支)(的)(压)(力)(和)(由)(选)(举)(前)(政)(策)(引)(发)(的)(通)(货)(膨)(胀)(趋)(势)(,进)(而)(收)(缩)(开)(支)(、政)(策)(转)(向)(。美)(国)(、中)(国)(等)(国)(政)(府)(存)(在)(4-5年)(的)(小)(换)(届)(和)(8-10年)(的)(大)(换)(届)(,同)(时)(中)(国)(存)(在)(地)(方)(政)(府)(换)(届)(后)(激)(励)(官)(员)(升)(迁)(的)(“GDP锦)(标)(赛)(”。
4)经)(济)(信)(心)(周)(期)(。现)(代)(经)(济)(学)(越)(来)(越)(从)(人)(类)(行)(为)(的)(角)(度)(认)(识)(经)(济)(不)(稳)(定)(性)(,周)(期)(不)(仅)(是)(一)(个)(技)(术)(过)(程)(,背)(后)(是)(亘)(古)(不)(变)(的)(人)(性)(轮)(回)(。经)(济)(周)(期)(从)(繁)(荣)(走)(向)(萧)(条)(的)(循)(环)(过)(程)(,也)(是)(人)(性)(从)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(走)(向)(过)(度)(悲)(观)(的)(轮)(回)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(的)(背)(后)(是)(人)(性)(过)(度)(乐)(观)(情)(绪)(所)(导)(致)(的)(。
5)发)(展)(阶)(段)(因)(素)(。当)(经)(济)(发)(展)(到)(一)(定)(阶)(段)(,会)(出)(现)(驱)(动)(设)(备)(投)(资)(的)(一)(些)(特)(殊)(因)(素)(,比)(如)(,地)(区)(间)(要)(素)(成)(本)(变)(化)(引)(发)(的)(产)(业)(转)(移)(,劳)(动)(力)(成)(本)(上)(升)(引)(发)(的)(机)(器)(替)(代)(劳)(动)(,技)(术)(进)(步)(引)(发)(的)(进)(口)(替)(代)(。
6)太)(阳)(活)(动)(周)(期)(。自)(1610年)(伽)(利)(略)(发)(现)(太)(阳)(黑)(子)(以)(来)(,关)(于)(太)(阳)(活)(动)(对)(人)(类)(、气)(候)(、农)(业)(以)(及)(整)(个)(经)(济)(的)(影)(响)(被)(广)(泛)(讨)(论)(。研)(究)(发)(现)(,太)(阳)(黑)(子)(的)(活)(动)(具)(有)(平)(均)(11.2年)(的)(周)(期)(循)(环)(性)(,活)(跃)(时)(会)(对)(地)(球)(的)(磁)(场)(产)(生)(影)(响)(,主)(要)(是)(使)(地)(球)(南)(北)(极)(和)(赤)(道)(的)(大)(气)(环)(流)(作)(经)(向)(流)(动)(,从)(而)(造)(成)(恶)(劣)(天)(气)(,使)(气)(候)(转)(冷)(,严)(重)(时)(会)(对)(各)(类)(电)(子)(产)(品)(和)(电)(器)(造)(成)(损)(害)(。关)(于)(太)(阳)(黑)(子)(周)(期)(对)(经)(济)(的)(影)(响)(,有)(的)(人)(认)(为)(是)(通)(过)(影)(响)(天)(气)(变)(化)(进)(而)(影)(响)(农)(业)(生)(产)(,也)(有)(人)(认)(为)(是)(气)(候)(和)(太)(阳)(辐)(射)(变)(化)(通)(过)(影)(响)(人)(的)(健)(康)(和)(情)(绪)(进)(而)(影)(响)(经)(济)(活)(动)(,也)(有)(人)(认)(为)(是)(直)(接)(影)(响)(人)(类)(经)(济)(社)(会)(活)(动)(,统)(计)(表)(明)(,在)(太)(阳)(黑)(子)(活)(跃)(的)(时)(段)(,恶)(劣)(天)(气)(、交)(通)(事)(故)(等)(明)(显)(增)(多)(。
4.2放)(大)(机)(制)(
乘)(数)(加)(速)(数)(:投)(资)(的)(一)(个)(变)(化)(会)(由)(于)(引)(致)(消)(费)(导)(致)(国)(民)(收)(入)(更)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,被)(称)(为)(投)(资)(乘)(数)(,大)(小)(取)(决)(于)(边)(际)(消)(费)(倾)(向)(。国)(民)(收)(入)(的)(一)(个)(变)(化)(会)(由)(于)(资)(本)(产)(出)(比)(导)(致)(对)(资)(本)(存)(量)(需)(求)(更)(大)(的)(变)(化)(,被)(称)(为)(加)(速)(原)(理)(,大)(小)(取)(决)(于)(资)(本)(产)(出)(比)(。乘)(数)(与)(加)(速)(原)(理)(相)(互)(作)(用)(会)(引)(起)(并)(放)(大)(经)(济)(的)(周)(期)(性)(波)(动)(:投)(资)(增)(加)(引)(起)(产)(量)(的)(更)(大)(增)(加)(,产)(量)(的)(更)(大)(增)(加)(又)(引)(起)(投)(资)(的)(更)(大)(增)(加)(,经)(济)(出)(现)(繁)(荣)(。然)(而)(,产)(量)(达)(到)(一)(定)(水)(平)(后)(由)(于)(社)(会)(需)(求)(与)(资)(源)(的)(限)(制)(无)(法)(再)(增)(加)(,这)(时)(就)(会)(由)(于)(加)(速)(原)(理)(的)(反)(向)(作)(用)(使)(投)(资)(更)(大)(幅)(度)(减)(少)(,投)(资)(的)(减)(少)(又)(会)(由)(于)(乘)(数)(的)(作)(用)(使)(产)(量)(继)(续)(减)(少)(,这)(两)(者)(的)(共)(同)(作)(用)(又)(会)(使)(经)(济)(进)(入)(萧)(条)(。
抵)(押)(信)(贷)(加)(速)(器)(:在)(经)(济)(从)(繁)(荣)(到)(萧)(条)(周)(期)(性)(地)(发)(生)(时)(,企)(业)(所)(拥)(有)(的)(资)(产)(及)(其)(带)(来)(的)(抵)(押)(信)(用)(基)(础)(从)(膨)(胀)(到)(收)(缩)(、从)(扩)(杠)(杆)(到)(去)(杠)(杆)(,具)(有)(明)(显)(的)(自)(我)(循)(环)(、自)(我)(放)(大)(的)(特)(点)(。在)(经)(济)(处)(于)(上)(升)(期)(时)(,企)(业)(拥)(有)(的)(土)(地)(、房)(屋)(、存)(货)(等)(资)(产)(价)(格)(不)(断)(升)(值)(,使)(得)(企)(业)(信)(用)(基)(础)(不)(断)(扩)(大)(,从)(而)(更)(容)(易)(获)(得)(信)(贷)(、放)(大)(杠)(杆)(。在)(经)(济)(处)(于)(下)(降)(期)(时)(,企)(业)(的)(资)(产)(价)(格)(则)(不)(断)(贬)(值)(,大)(大)(削)(弱)(企)(业)(的)(信)(用)(基)(础)(,从)(而)(使)(得)(企)(业)(更)(难)(获)(得)(信)(贷)(,被)(迫)(收)(缩)(杠)(杆)(。
货)(币)(加)(速)(器)(:商)(业)(银)(行)(的)(行)(为)(历)(来)(是)(顺)(周)(期)(的)(,当)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(预)(期)(好)(时)(,商)(业)(银)(行)(会)(倾)(向)(于)(扩)(大)(信)(贷)(规)(模)(,锦)(上)(添)(花)(。相)(反)(,当)(企)(业)(盈)(利)(预)(期)(变)(差)(时)(,银)(行)(会)(倾)(向)(于)(收)(缩)(贷)(款)(规)(模)(,雪)(上)(加)(霜)(。
情)(绪)(加)(速)(器)(:人)(们)(在)(诸)(多)(领)(域)(存)(在)(集)(体)(非)(理)(性)(,在)(经)(济)(繁)(荣)(时)(过)(于)(乐)(观)(和)(自)(信)(,认)(为)(好)(日)(子)(会)(一)(直)(持)(续)(下)(去)(,自)(己)(做)(出)(正)(确)(决)(策)(的)(能)(力)(高)(人)(一)(筹)(;而)(在)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(时)(人)(们)(则)(又)(陷)(入)(悲)(观)(,认)(为)(经)(济)(低)(迷)(将)(一)(直)(持)(续)(下)(去)(,怀)(疑)(自)(己)(的)(决)(策)(能)(力)(。人)(类)(社)(会)(这)(种)(集)(体)(的)(非)(理)(性)(、羊)(群)(式)(的)(从)(众)(心)(理)(、把)(短)(期)(趋)(势)(看)(成)(未)(来)(长)(期)(趋)(势)(的)(现)(象)(从)(未)(消)(失)(过)(,明)(显)(放)(大)(了)(经)(济)(波)(动)(。
5产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(的)(类)(别)(
1)产)(能)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(。受)(经)(济)(景)(气)(驱)(动)(,以)(扩)(张)(产)(能)(为)(目)(的)(,新)(建)(、扩)(建)(为)(主)(。包)(括)(设)(备)(扩)(张)(、劳)(动)(力)(雇)(佣)(、原)(材)(料)(采)(购)(等)(。当)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(时)(,企)(业)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(得)(到)(提)(升)(,新)(一)(轮)(经)(济)(周)(期)(启)(动)(,企)(业)(开)(始)(进)(行)(新)(一)(轮)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(,以)(在)(未)(来)(的)(市)(场)(竞)(争)(者)(抢)(占)(先)(机)(;当)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(时)(,企)(业)(被)(迫)(去)(产)(能)(,以)(降)(低)(运)(营)(成)(本)(,度)(过)(冬)(天)(。
2)产)(能)(更)(新)(周)(期)(。受)(设)(备)(寿)(命)(周)(期)(驱)(动)(,主)(要)(是)(对)(原)(有)(设)(备)(重)(置)(更)(新)(,不)(以)(扩)(大)(产)(能)(为)(目)(的)(。设)(备)(更)(新)(分)(为)(物)(理)(更)(新)(、技)(术)(更)(新)(和)(经)(济)(更)(新)(等)(三)(种)(,是)(指)(用)(新)(的)(、或)(比)(较)(先)(进)(的)(、或)(更)(为)(经)(济)(的)(设)(备)(,来)(替)(代)(物)(理)(上)(不)(能)(继)(续)(使)(用)(的)(、或)(技)(术)(上)(不)(适)(宜)(继)(续)(使)(用)(、或)(经)(济)(上)(继)(续)(使)(用)(不)(划)(算)(的)(设)(备)(。
3)其)(它)(产)(能)(投)(资)(活)(动)(。当)(经)(济)(发)(展)(到)(一)(定)(阶)(段)(,还)(存)(在)(机)(器)(替)(代)(劳)(动)(、地)(区)(产)(业)(转)(移)(等)(设)(备)(投)(资)(活)(动)(,也)(不)(以)(扩)(张)(产)(能)(为)(目)(的)(,而)(是)(在)(原)(有)(产)(能)(规)(模)(不)(变)(情)(况)(下)(,重)(新)(进)(行)(要)(素)(组)(合)(或)(地)(区)(布)(局)(。
6美)(国)(产)(能)(周)(期)(
产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(揭)(示)(的)(是)(产)(业)(在)(生)(产)(设)(备)(、基)(础)(结)(构)(以)(及)(就)(业)(雇)(佣)(的)(循)(环)(投)(资)(活)(动)(,属)(于)(中)(周)(期)(,时)(长)(约)(6-11年)(。美)(国)(二)(战)(前)(产)(能)(投)(资)(周)(期)(平)(均)(长)(度)(为)(10年)(左)(右)(,二)(战)(后)(缩)(短)(为)(7年)(左)(右)(。造)(成)(周)(期)(缩)(短)(的)(原)(因)(包)(括)(:技)(术)(进)(步)(更)(快)(;信)(息)(传)(播)(更)(迅)(速)(,产)(业)(界)(把)(握)(投)(资)(机)(会)(的)(能)(力)(更)(强)(;产)(业)(进)(行)(了)(升)(级)(,新)(主)(导)(产)(业)(需)(要)(的)(设)(备)(更)(新)(折)(旧)(更)(快)(;税)(法)(鼓)(励)(企)(业)(采)(用)(加)(速)(折)(旧)(法)(;政)(府)(逆)(周)(期)(宏)(观)(调)(控)(的)(影)(响)(。
解)(运)(亮)(博)(士)(研)(究)(了)(“全)(球)(朱)(格)(拉)(周)(期)(”,论)(证)(了)(《全)(球)(可)(能)(正)(站)(在)(朱)(格)(拉)(周)(期)(新)(起)(点)(上)(》,并)(将)(带)(动)(对)(中)(国)(制)(造)(的)(外)(需)(。解)(博)(士)(是)(作)(者)(原)(来)(在)(国)(泰)(君)(安)(带)(领)(的)(宏)(观)(团)(队)(成)(员)(,另)(一)(位)(成)(员)(熊)(义)(明)(博)(士)(在)(2016年)(底)(曾)(提)(出)(“全)(球)(流)(动)(性)(拐)(点)(”,这)(两)(大)(判)(断)(均)(十)(分)(有)(洞)(见)(,识)(拔)(年)(轻)(人)(是)(作)(者)(的)(一)(大)(快)(乐)(。
产)(能)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(和)(产)(能)(更)(新)(周)(期)(的)(影)(响)(随)(着)(经)(济)(发)(展)(而)(此)(消)(彼)(长)(。在)(经)(济)(起)(飞)(阶)(段)(,设)(备)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(周)(期)(较)(强)(而)(设)(备)(更)(新)(周)(期)(较)(弱)(。随)(着)(经)(济)(快)(速)(发)(展)(,尤)(其)(是)(步)(入)(住)(行)(消)(费)(升)(级)(和)(重)(化)(工)(业)(阶)(段)(,资)(本)(密)(集)(度)(大)(幅)(提)(高)(,设)(备)(更)(新)(周)(期)(的)(影)(响)(开)(始)(显)(现)(。当)(经)(济)(进)(入)(成)(熟)(经)(济)(体)(,经)(济)(增)(长)(潜)(力)(下)(降)(,资)(本)(密)(集)(度)(较)(高)(,这)(时)(设)(备)(更)(新)(周)(期)(将)(越)(来)(越)(凸)(显)(。因)(此)(,发)(达)(国)(家)(比)(发)(展)(中)(国)(家)(更)(容)(易)(观)(察)(到)(设)(备)(更)(新)(周)(期)(。
7中)(国)(产)(能)(周)(期)(
改)(革)(开)(放)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(经)(历)(了)(四)(轮)(产)(能)(周)(期)(:1980-1991年)(,1992-2000年)(,2001-2008年)(,2009-2016年)(。2017年)(前)(后)(处)(于)(第)(五)(轮)(产)(能)(周)(期)(的)(起)(点)(。第)(三)(轮)(产)(能)(周)(期)(上)(升)(期)(始)(于)(2001年)(前)(后)(,在)(2007年)(中)(期)(见)(顶)(后)(开)(始)(进)(入)(下)(滑)(期)(,2008年)(国)(际)(金)(融)(危)(机)(期)(间)(本)(应)(进)(行)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(出)(清)(,但)(是)(2009年)(“四)(万)(亿)(刺)(激)(”进)(一)(步)(扩)(张)(了)(新)(产)(能)(,产)(能)(过)(剩)(进)(一)(步)(堆)(积)(,产)(能)(出)(清)(被)(推)(迟)(了)(。2004-2007年)(的)(建)(成)(产)(能)(,叠)(加)(2009年)(的)(新)(建)(产)(能)(,一)(直)(到)(2011年)(接)(近)(产)(能)(投)(放)(尾)(声)(,在)(2012年)(前)(后)(才)(步)(入)(漫)(长)(的)(产)(能)(出)(清)(,经)(过)(54个)(月)(通)(缩)(的)(市)(场)(自)(发)(出)(清)(和)(2016年)(以)(来)(的)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(,2017年)(前)(后)(这)(一)(轮)(产)(能)(出)(清)(周)(期)(接)(近)(尾)(声)(。
目)(前)(我)(们)(正)(处)(在)(产)(能)(周)(期)(的)(第)(三)(个)(阶)(段)(,供)(给)(出)(清)(的)(尾)(声)(,企)(业)(盈)(利)(和)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(开)(始)(修)(复)(。2012年)(以)(来)(,经)(过)(长)(达)(54个)(月)(的)(通)(缩)(,化)(工)(、造)(纸)(、玻)(璃)(、水)(泥)(、钢)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(、机)(械)(等)(传)(统)(行)(业)(领)(域)(大)(量)(中)(小)(企)(业)(退)(出)(,行)(业)(龙)(头)(压)(缩)(淘)(汰)(过)(剩)(产)(能)(,市)(场)(自)(发)(的)(力)(量)(进)(行)(产)(能)(出)(清)(,2016年)(启)(动)(的)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(和)(行)(政)(去)(产)(能)(加)(速)(了)(国)(企)(占)(比)(高)(的)(行)(业)(的)(产)(能)(出)(清)(。传)(统)(行)(业)(竞)(争)(格)(局)(优)(化)(,步)(入)(剩)(者)(为)(王)(、强)(者)(恒)(强)(的)(时)(代)(。2016年)(以)(来)(,中)(国)(工)(业)(企)(业)(的)(产)(能)(利)(用)(率)(正)(逐)(步)(触)(底)(,部)(分)(传)(统)(行)(业)(产)(能)(出)(清)(实)(际)(状)(况)(远)(比)(统)(计)(数)(据)(展)(示)(的)(更)(为)(充)(分)(。周)(期)(品)(价)(格)(在)(2016年)(以)(来)(上)(涨)(,是)(库)(存)(周)(期)(和)(产)(能)(出)(清)(周)(期)(叠)(加)(的)(结)(果)(。库)(存)(周)(期)(和)(产)(能)(周)(期)(的)(区)(别)(:库)(存)(周)(期)(是)(短)(周)(期)(,产)(能)(周)(期)(是)(中)(周)(期)(,可)(持)(续)(性)(在)(中)(期)(会)(比)(较)(强)(。
供)(给)(出)(清)(新)(周)(期)(是)(产)(能)(周)(期)(的)(第)(三)(个)(阶)(段)(,描)(述)(的)(是)(供)(给)(出)(清)(进)(入)(尾)(声)(、行)(业)(集)(中)(度)(提)(升)(、剩)(者)(为)(王)(、企)(业)(盈)(利)(改)(善)(、资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(修)(复)(、为)(新)(一)(轮)(产)(能)(扩)(张)(蓄)(积)(能)(量)(的)(状)(况)(。经)(过)(长)(达)(六)(年)(的)(去)(产)(能)(、通)(缩)(和)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(调)(整)(,我)(们)(正)(站)(在)(新)(周)(期)(的)(起)(点)(上)(。
作)(者)(在)(2010年)(参)(与)(研)(究)(提)(出)(“增)(长)(阶)(段)(转)(换)(”,2014年)(提)(出)(“新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(”,2015年)(提)(出)(“经)(济)(L型)(”,预)(判)(2016年)(中)(国)(经)(济)(会)(见)(底)(,2017年)(提)(出)(“新)(周)(期)(”。这)(几)(个)(判)(断)(延)(续)(着)(一)(以)(贯)(之)(的)(逻)(辑)(。
作)(者)(介)(绍)(:
任)(泽)(平)(,方)(正)(证)(券)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(、研)(究)(所)(联)(席)(所)(长)(。曾)(先)(后)(担)(任)(国)(务)(院)(发)(展)(研)(究)(中)(心)(宏)(观)(部)(研)(究)(室)(副)(主)(任)(,国)(泰)(君)(安)(证)(券)(研)(究)(所)(董)(事)(总)(经)(理)(、首)(席)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(师)(,首)(都)(金)(融)(智)(库)(专)(家)(,科)(技)(部)(国)(家)(高)(新)(区)(升)(级)(评)(审)(专)(家)(,中)(国)(新)(供)(给)(50人)(论)(坛)(成)(员)(,中)(国)(人)(民)(大)(学)(兼)(职)(研)(究)(员)(,对)(外)(经)(贸)(大)(学)(兼)(职)(教)(授)(。中)(国)(人)(民)(大)(学)(经)(济)(学)(博)(士)(,清)(华)(大)(学)(经)(济)(管)(理)(学)(院)(博)(士)(后)(。曾)(参)(与)(重)(大)(文)(件)(和)(改)(革)(方)(案)(起)(草)(,在)(《人)(民)(日)(报)(》、《经)(济)(研)(究)(》等)(报)(刊)(发)(表)(文)(章)(百)(篇)(,专)(著)(《宏)(观)(经)(济)(结)(构)(研)(究)(》入)(选)(“当)(代)(经)(济)(学)(文)(库)(”,出)(版)(译)(著)(《从)(奇)(迹)(到)(成)(熟)(:韩)(国)(转)(型)(经)(验)(》、专)(著)(《大)(势)(研)(判)(:经)(济)(、政)(策)(与)(资)(本)(市)(场)(》。先)(后)(提)(出)(“新)(5%比)(旧)(8%好)(”、“5000点)(不)(是)(梦)(”、“改)(革)(牛)(”、“一)(线)(房)(价)(翻)(一)(倍)(”、“经)(济)(L型)(”、“新)(周)(期)(”等)(重)(要)(判)(断)(,2015年)(大)(满)(贯)(冠)(军)(分)(析)(师)(。
三)(年)(前)(的)(2014年)(,任)(泽)(平)(博)(士)(提)(出)(“对)(熊)(市)(的)(最)(后)(一)(战)(”,在)(市)(场)(上)(引)(发)(史)(诗)(般)(的)(多)(空)(论)(战)(,随)(后)(A股)(开)(启)(一)(轮)(波)(澜)(壮)(阔)(的)(大)(牛)(市)(。
三)(年)(后)(的)(2017年)(,任)(泽)(平)(博)(士)(提)(出)(“新)(周)(期)(”,再)(度)(掀)(起)(教)(科)(书)(级)(的)(多)(空)(论)(战)(,在)(争)(议)(中)(消)(费)(、金)(融)(、周)(期)(股)(走)(出)(结)(构)(性)(牛)(市)(。
经)(过)(六)(年)(多)(市)(场)(出)(清)(,叠)(加)(供)(给)(侧)(改)(革)(和)(环)(保)(督)(查)(,中)(国)(经)(济)(能)(否)(掀)(开)(新)(的)(一)(页)(?将)(带)(来)(哪)(些)(重)(大)(投)(资)(机)(遇)(?
近)(期)(任)(泽)(平)(博)(士)(将)(在)(北)(京)(、上)(海)(、深)(圳)(举)(办)(研)(究)(方)(法)(培)(训)(会)(。十)(七)(年)(宏)(观)(研)(究)(经)(历)(,从)(学)(术)(研)(究)(、公)(共)(政)(策)(研)(究)(到)(商)(业)(研)(究)(的)(丰)(富)(实)(践)(,宏)(观)(框)(架)(,大)(势)(研)(判)(,化)(繁)(为)(简)(,诚)(意)(奉)(献)(。
站)(在)(历)(史)(的)(大)(拐)(点)(上)(,正)(解)(新)(周)(期)(。
参)(见)(:
2017年)(8月)(17日)(
2017年)(8月)(8日)(
2017年)(8月)(4日)(
2017年)(7月)(24日)(
2017年)(7月)(20日)(
2017年)(7月)(15日)(
2017年)(4月)(19日)(
2017年)(2月)(28日)(
2017年)(1月)(3日)(
2016年)(8月)(2日)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
)


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