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明年在离岸汇差或仍将持续

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月22日 01:15:36
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(  离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(昨)(日)(一)(度)(跌)(破)(“6.61”、刷)(新)(5年)(来)(新)(低)(,而)(后)(强)(势)(反)(弹)(逾)(500个)(基)(点)(,演)(绎)(“过)(山)(车)(”行)(情)(。在)(岸)(、离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(价)(差)(昨)(日)(一)(度)(突)(破)(1000个)(基)(点)(,尾)(盘)(该)(价)(差)(维)(持)(在)(近)(800点)(附)(近)(。
  市)(场)(预)(计)(,2016年)(上)(半)(年)(在)(岸)(与)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(价)(差)(或)(将)(持)(续)(。同)(时)(明)(年)(或)(将)(推)(出)(主)(要)(参)(考)(一)(篮)(子)(货)(币)(的)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(,以)(替)(换)(当)(前)(软)(盯)(美)(元)(的)(机)(制)(。
  在)(、离)(岸)(价)(差)(一)(度)(破)(1000点)(
  昨)(日)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(中)(间)(价)(报)(6.4895,较)(上)(一)(交)(易)(日)(下)(跌)(31个)(基)(点)(。即)(期)(汇)(率)(方)(面)(,在)(岸)(市)(场)(上)(,来)(自)(中)(国)(外)(汇)(交)(易)(中)(心)(的)(参)(考)(汇)(率)(显)(示)(,全)(天)(即)(期)(参)(考)(汇)(率)(在)(6.49附)(近)(。
  离)(岸)(市)(场)(上)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(昨)(日)(演)(绎)(“过)(山)(车)(”行)(情)(,开)(于)(6.5752,开)(盘)(后)(人)(民)(币)(在)(持)(续)(震)(荡)(中)(下)(行)(,一)(度)(跌)(穿)(“6.61”心)(理)(关)(口)(,既)(打)(破)(了)(8.11汇)(改)(以)(来)(的)(低)(位)(,也)(刷)(新)(了)(5年)(来)(新)(低)(。而)(后)(在)(疑)(似)(央)(行)(干)(预)(下)(,人)(民)(币)(强)(势)(反)(弹)(、升)(逾)(500个)(基)(点)(,尾)(盘)(报)(于)(6.56附)(近)(。
  “离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(跌)(破)(5年)(来)(低)(位)(之)(后)(,央)(行)(可)(能)(进)(行)(市)(场)(干)(预)(,以)(维)(持)(汇)(率)(在)(6.60以)(下)(。”有)(交)(易)(员)(认)(为)(,在)(岸)(、离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(差)(在)(1000个)(基)(点)(是)(央)(行)(是)(否)(进)(行)(市)(场)(干)(预)(的)(底)(线)(,因)(为)(这)(会)(对)(人)(民)(币)(预)(期)(形)(成)(较)(多)(负)(面)(影)(响)(,也)(会)(造)(成)(更)(多)(投)(机)(机)(会)(,而)(当)(前)(市)(场)(也)(在)(不)(断)(测)(试)(央)(行)(底)(线)(。
  在)(岸)(、离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(汇)(率)(价)(差)(昨)(日)(在)(一)(度)(突)(破)(1000个)(基)(点)(之)(后)(,尾)(盘)(该)(价)(差)(维)(持)(在)(近)(800点)(附)(近)(。
  明)(年)(在)(岸)(离)(岸)(价)(差)(或)(持)(续)(
  2015年)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(市)(场)(可)(谓)(是)(“先)(扬)(后)(平)(”,上)(半)(年)(发)(展)(势)(头)(迅)(猛)(,人)(民)(币)(结)(算)(及)(交)(易)(活)(动)(猛)(增)(。下)(半)(年)(受)(国)(内)(股)(市)(及)(全)(球)(汇)(市)(波)(动)(影)(响)(,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(流)(动)(性)(及)(固)(定)(收)(益)(市)(场)(增)(长)(放)(缓)(。
  离)(岸)(市)(场)(也)(受)(资)(本)(账)(户)(进)(一)(步)(开)(放)(的)(影)(响)(,这)(其)(中)(包)(括)(对)(境)(外)(央)(行)(类)(机)(构)(开)(放)(国)(内)(银)(行)(间)(固)(定)(收)(益)(及)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(,扩)(大)(RQFII,开)(展)(内)(地)(香)(港)(基)(金)(互)(认)(等)(。同)(时)(,人)(民)(币)(利)(率)(和)(汇)(率)(改)(革)(提)(速)(,包)(括)(逐)(步)(透)(明)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(形)(成)(机)(制)(,放)(开)(人)(民)(币)(存)(款)(利)(率)(限)(制)(,构)(建)(“利)(率)(走)(廊)(”,并)(批)(准)(上)(海)(自)(贸)(区)(多)(项)(金)(融)(开)(放)(试)(点)(。人)(民)(币)(离)(岸)(设)(施)(进)(一)(步)(加)(强)(,国)(际)(合)(作)(日)(益)(密)(切)(,如)(建)(立)(人)(民)(币)(跨)(境)(支)(付)(系)(统)((CIPS)。
  “2016年)(上)(半)(年)(在)(岸)(与)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(价)(差)(或)(将)(持)(续)(。离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(流)(动)(性)(吃)(紧)(的)(状)(态)(或)(将)(继)(续)(一)(段)(时)(间)(。”德)(意)(志)(银)(行)(高)(级)(策)(略)(师)(刘)(立)(男)(认)(为)(,只)(有)(在)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(外)(汇)(市)(场)(的)(供)(需)(逐)(步)(平)(衡)(后)(,在)(岸)(与)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(货)(币)(市)(场)(利)(率)(间)(的)(差)(异)(才)(将)(逐)(渐)(缩)(小)(。
  刘)(立)(男)(认)(为)(,离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(流)(动)(性)(或)(将)(在)(明)(年)(政)(府)(出)(台)(相)(关)(宏)(观)(审)(慎)(措)(施)(后)(逐)(步)(恢)(复)(,这)(是)(决)(定)(明)(年)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(债)(券)(市)(场)(融)(资)(活)(动)(能)(否)(复)(苏)(的)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。他)(还)(预)(计)(,在)(人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(波)(动)(影)(响)(下)(,明)(年)(离)(岸)(人)(民)(币)(存)(款)(或)(将)(呈)(缓)(慢)(恢)(复)(态)(势)(,年)(底)(规)(模)(约)(增)(长)(至)(人)(民)(币)(2.5万)(亿)(元)(。
  再)(贬)(值)(为)(货)(币)(政)(策)(提)(供)(空)(间)(
  中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(于)(8月)(11日)(出)(人)(意)(料)(地)(改)(革)(了)(人)(民)(币)(中)(间)(价)(定)(价)(机)(制)(,以)(缩)(小)(其)(与)(境)(内)(即)(期)(汇)(率)(的)(差)(距)(,这)(导)(致)(了)(对)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(高)(企)(、资)(本)(外)(流)(加)(剧)(以)(及)(中)(国)(人)(民)(银)(行)(为)(稳)(定)(汇)(率)(而)(采)(取)(的)(大)(规)(模)(干)(预)(。
  自)(8.11汇)(改)(至)(今)(,人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(中)(间)(价)(已)(累)(计)(下)(跌)(3733个)(基)(点)(,跌)(幅)(约)(6%。另)(据)(摩)(根)(大)(通)(的)(计)(算)(,在)(8月)(份)(贬)(值)(之)(前)(的)(12个)(月)(内)(,人)(民)(币)(实)(际)(有)(效)(汇)(率)(已)(经)(升)(值)(了)(10-15%,人)(民)(币)(汇)(率)(目)(前)(可)(能)(仍)(被)(高)(估)(了)(5%-10%左)(右)(。
  值)(得)(注)(意)(的)(是)(,自)(IMF(国)(际)(货)(币)(基)(金)(组)(织)()11月)(底)(批)(准)(将)(人)(民)(币)(纳)(入)(SDR(特)(别)(提)(款)(权)(),市)(场)(人)(士)(认)(为)(,这)(同)(时)(引)(发)(了)(对)(于)(人)(民)(币)(贬)(值)(预)(期)(、大)(规)(模)(资)(本)(外)(流)(以)(及)(全)(球)(金)(融)(市)(场)(风)(险)(溢)(价)(上)(升)(。
  “尽)(管)(实)(施)(了)(一)(系)(列)(降)(息)(降)(准)(,但)(货)(币)(状)(况)(依)(然)(相)(当)(偏)(紧)(,其)(中)(的)(主)(要)(原)(因)(在)(于)(通)(胀)(较)(低)(且)(人)(民)(币)(实)(际)(有)(效)(汇)(率)(升)(值)(。”摩)(根)(大)(通)(中)(国)(首)(席)(经)(济)(学)(家)(朱)(海)(斌)(预)(计)(,明)(年)(的)(某)(个)(时)(间)(将)(推)(出)(主)(要)(参)(考)(一)(篮)(子)(货)(币)(的)(汇)(率)(机)(制)(,以)(替)(换)(当)(前)(软)(盯)(美)(元)(的)(机)(制)(,让)(人)(民)(币)(对)(美)(元)(适)(度)(贬)(值)(,为)(国)(内)(货)(币)(政)(策)(操)(作)(提)(供)(更)(大)(的)(空)(间)(。
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