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投资中最重要的事

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月22日 01:13:16
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(除)(非)(你)(是)(真)(正)(的)(抄)(底)((几)(乎)(是)(不)(可)(能)(的)(),否)(则)(在)(进)(行)(投)(资)(之)(后)(的)(某)(个)(时)(刻)(,你)(终)(将)(经)(历)(下)(跌)(。
在)(一)(个)(下)(跌)(的)(市)(场)(中)(获)(利)(有)(两)(个)(基)(本)(要)(素)(:你)(必)(须)(了)(解)(内)(在)(价)(值)(;同)(时)(你)(必)(须)(足)(够)(自)(信)(,坚)(定)(地)(持)(股)(并)(不)(断)(买)(进)(,即)(是)(价)(格)(已)(经)(跌)(到)(似)(乎)(暗)(示)(你)(做)(错)(了)(的)(时)(候)(。哦)(,对)(了)(,还)(有)(第)(三)(个)(基)(本)(要)(素)(:你)(必)(须)(是)(正)(确)(的)(。
成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(不)(在)(于)(“买)(好)(的)(”,而)(在)(于)(“买)(的)(好)(”。
投)(资)(者)(应)(该)(警)(惕)(衰)(退)(的)(风)(险)(,它)(会)(令)(低)(价)(股)(转)(化)(为)(价)(值)(陷)(阱)(。
好)(的)(买)(进)(是)(成)(功)(卖)(出)(的)(一)(半)(,我)(们)(不)(花)(太)(多)(时)(间)(去)(考)(虑)(股)(票)(的)(卖)(出)(价)(格)(、卖)(出)(时)(机)(、卖)(出)(对)(象)(或)(卖)(出)(途)(径)(。如)(果)(你)(买)(的)(足)(够)(便)(宜)(,那)(么)(最)(终)(这)(些)(问)(题)(的)(答)(案)(是)(不)(言)(而)(喻)(的)(。
许)(多)(价)(值)(投)(资)(者)(都)(不)(擅)(长)(到)(底)(在)(何)(时)(应)(该)(卖)(出)((很)(多)(人)(卖)(出)(过)(早)()。不)(过)(,知)(道)(何)(时)(买)(进)(能)(够)(弥)(补)(因)(为)(卖)(出)(过)(早)(导)(致)(的)(许)(多)(错)(误)(。
公)(司)(价)(值)(几)(何)(?归)(根)(结)(底)(就)(是)(这)(个)(问)(题)(。单)(凭)(创)(意)(或)(业)(务)(好)(就)(买)(进)(股)(票)(是)(不)(够)(的)(,你)(必)(须)(以)(合)(理)(的)(价)(格)((或)(者)(顺)(利)(的)(话)(,以)(特)(价)()买)(进)(。
再)(没)(有)(比)(在)(崩)(盘)(期)(间)(从)(不)(顾)(价)(格)(必)(须)(卖)(出)(的)(人)(手)(中)(买)(进)(更)(好)(的)(事)(了)(。
既)(然)(从)(强)(制)(卖)(家)(手)(中)(买)(进)(是)(世)(界)(上)(最)(美)(妙)(的)(事)(,那)(么)(成)(为)(强)(制)(卖)(家)(就)(是)(世)(界)(上)(最)(悲)(惨)(的)(事)(。所)(以)(,把)(自)(己)(的)(事)(情)(安)(排)(好)(,保)(证)(自)(己)(能)(够)(在)(最)(艰)(难)(的)(时)(期)(坚)(持)(住)((不)(卖)(出)()是)(非)(常)(重)(要)(的)(。要)(做)(到)(这)(一)(点)(,既)(需)(要)(长)(期)(资)(本)(,又)(需)(要)(强)(大)(的)(心)(理)(素)(质)(。
投)(资)(是)(一)(场)(人)(气)(竞)(赛)(,在)(人)(气)(最)(旺)(的)(时)(候)(买)(进)(是)(最)(危)(险)(的)(。在)(那)(个)(时)(候)(,一)(切)(利)(好)(因)(素)(和)(观)(点)(都)(已)(经)(被)(计)(入)(价)(格)(中)(,而)(且)(再)(也)(不)(会)(有)(新)(的)(买)(家)(出)(现)(。
最)(大)(的)(失)(败)(——1960年)(的)(漂)(亮)(50,1999年)(的)(互)(联)(网)(股)(票)(或)(2006年)(的)(次)(贷)(工)(具)(——都)(有)(着)(某)(种)(共)(同)(之)(处)(:找)(不)(到)(缺)(点)(。有)(多)(种)(方)(式)(可)(以)(描)(述)(当)(时)(的)(情)(况)(:“完)(美)(定)(价)(”“深)(受)(追)(捧)(”“无)(懈)(可)(击)(”。但)(是)(没)(有)(什)(么)(是)(完)(美)(的)(,事)(实)(证)(明)(缺)(点)(无)(处)(不)(在)(。当)(你)(为)(完)(美)(买)(单)(的)(时)(候)(,并)(没)(有)(得)(到)(你)(所)(预)(期)(的)(,相)(反)(,在)(真)(相)(大)(白)(的)(时)(候)(,你)(所)(付)(出)(的)(高)(价)(将)(会)(令)(你)(暴)(露)(于)(风)(险)(之)(下)(,这)(是)(真)(正)(的)(危)(险)(的)(事)(情)(之)(一)(。
最)(安)(全)(、潜)(力)(最)(大)(的)(投)(资)(,是)(在)(没)(人)(喜)(欢)(的)(时)(候)(买)(进)(。假)(以)(时)(日)(,一)(旦)(证)(券)(收)(到)(欢)(迎)(,那)(么)(它)(的)(价)(格)(只)(可)(能)(向)(一)(个)(方)(向)(变)(化)(:上)(涨)(。
某)(种)(东)(西)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(时)(,人)(们)(的)(喜)(爱)(程)(度)(本)(应)(下)(降)(,但)(在)(投)(资)(中)(,他)(们)(的)(喜)(爱)(程)(度)(往)(往)(会)(加)(深)(。
股)(票)(背)(后)(的)(利)(好)(可)(能)(是)(真)(的)(,但)(是)(如)(果)(你)(买)(入)(价)(格)(过)(高)(,仍)(然)(会)(损)(失)(。价)(格)(过)(高)(和)(下)(一)(步)(将)(下)(跌)(完)(全)(是)(两)(个)(意)(思)(。证)(券)(价)(格)(可)(能)(会)(过)(高)(并)(且)(维)(持)(相)(当)(长)(的)(一)(段)(时)(间)(……甚)(至)(会)(进)(一)(步)(上)(涨)(。无)(论)(如)(何)(,价)(值)(最)(终)(会)(发)(挥)(作)(用)(。
再)(读)(一)(遍)(最)(后)(一)(条)(!这)(些)(要)(点)(非)(常)(正)(确)(,但)(是)(在)(陷)(入)(狂)(热)(冲)(动)(或)(泡)(沫)(的)(时)(候)(,要)(想)(掌)(握)(它)(们)(是)(有)(挑)(战)(性)(的)(。
在)(泡)(沫)(时)(期)(,对)(市)(场)(势)(头)(的)(迷)(恋)(取)(代)(了)(价)(值)(和)(公)(平)(价)(格)(的)(观)(念)(,贪)(婪)((加)(上)(其)(他)(人)(似)(乎)(大)(发)(横)(财)(时)(旁)(观)(的)(痛)(苦)()抵)(消)(了)(所)(有)(本)(应)(占)(据)(主)(导)(地)(位)(的)(智)(慧)(。
低)(于)(价)(值)(买)(进)(并)(非)(万)(无)(一)(失)(,但)(它)(是)(我)(们)(最)(好)(的)(机)(会)(。
人)(们)(普)(遍)(认)(为)(,风)(险)(在)(经)(济)(衰)(退)(以)(及)(由)(盛)(转)(衰)(时)(增)(大)(。与)(此)(相)(反)(,认)(为)(风)(险)(在)(经)(济)(上)(升)(时)(增)(加)(,并)(且)(随)(着)(经)(济)(失)(衡)(的)(扩)(大)(在)(衰)(退)(期)(化)(为)(现)(实)(的)(想)(法)(,可)(能)(更)(为)(有)(益)(。
无)(论)(基)(本)(面)(有)(多)(好)(,人)(类)(的)(贪)(婪)(与)(犯)(错)(倾)(向)(都)(会)(把)(事)(情)(搞)(得)(一)(团)(糟)(。
最)(危)(险)(的)(事)(:最)(大)(的)(风)(险)(并)(不)(是)(来)(自)(于)(低)(质)(量)(或)(高)(波)(动)(性)(,而)(是)(来)(自)(于)(买)(价)(过)(高)(。这)(并)(不)(是)(假)(想)(的)(风)(险)(,而)(是)(活)(生)(生)(的)(现)(实)(。
在)(所)(有)(人)(都)(相)(信)(某)(种)(东)(西)(有)(风)(险)(的)(时)(候)(,他)(们)(不)(愿)(意)(购)(买)(的)(意)(愿)(通)(常)(会)(把)(价)(格)(降)(到)(完)(全)(没)(有)(风)(险)(的)(地)(步)(。广)(泛)(的)(否)(定)(意)(见)(可)(以)(使)(风)(险)(最)(小)(化)(,因)(为)(价)(格)(里)(所)(有)(乐)(观)(因)(素)(都)(被)(消)(除)(了)(。
当)(人)(人)(都)(相)(信)(某)(种)(东)(西)(没)(有)(风)(险)(的)(时)(候)(,价)(格)(通)(常)(会)(被)(哄)(抬)(至)(蕴)(含)(巨)(大)(风)(险)(的)(地)(步)(。没)(有)(风)(险)(担)(忧)(,因)(此)(也)(就)(不)(提)(供)(或)(不)(要)(求)(风)(险)(承)(担)(的)(回)(报)(——“风)(险)(溢)(价)(”。这)(可)(能)(会)(使)(受)(人)(们)(推)(崇)(的)(最)(佳)(资)(产)(成)(为)(风)(险)(最)(高)(的)(资)(产)(。
“任)(何)(价)(钱)(我)(都)(不)(会)(买)(进)(——所)(有)(人)(都)(知)(道)(风)(险)(太)(大)(了)(。”在)(生)(活)(中)(我)(听)(到)(很)(多)(这)(样)(的)(话)(,而)(它)(已)(经)(为)(我)(提)(供)(过)(最)(好)(的)(投)(资)(机)(会)(……
大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(认)(为)(风)(险)(与)(否)(的)(决)(定)(因)(素)(是)(质)(量)(而)(不)(是)(价)(格)(。但)(是)(,高)(质)(量)(资)(产)(也)(可)(能)(是)(有)(风)(险)(的)(,低)(质)(量)(资)(产)(也)(可)(能)(是)(安)(全)(的)(。所)(谓)(的)(质)(量)(,不)(过)(是)(为)(资)(产)(所)(付)(出)(的)(价)(格)(问)(题)(……因)(此)(,狂)(热)(的)(公)(众)(意)(见)(不)(仅)(是)(潜)(在)(的)(低)(收)(益)(的)(源)(泉)(,还)(是)(高)(风)(险)(的)(源)(泉)(。
归)(根)(结)(底)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(工)(作)(是)(以)(盈)(利)(为)(目)(的)(聪)(明)(地)(承)(担)(风)(险)(。能)(够)(出)(色)(地)(做)(到)(这)(一)(点)(,是)(最)(好)(的)(投)(资)(者)(与)(其)(他)(投)(资)(者)(之)(间)(的)(区)(别)(。
杰)(出)(的)(投)(资)(者)(是)(那)(些)(承)(担)(着)(与)(其)(赚)(到)(的)(收)(益)(不)(相)(称)(的)(低)(风)(险)(的)(人)(。他)(们)(以)(低)(风)(险)(赚)(到)(中)(等)(收)(益)(,或)(以)(中)(等)(风)(险)(赚)(到)(高)(收)(益)(。承)(担)(高)(风)(险)(、赚)(到)(高)(收)(益)(不)(算)(什)(么)(——除)(非)(你)(能)(坚)(持)(很)(多)(年)(,在)(那)(种)(情)(况)(下)(,“高)(风)(险)(”要)(么)(不)(是)(真)(的)(高)(风)(险)(,要)(么)(就)(是)(被)(管)(理)(得)(很)(好)(。
贯)(穿)(长)(期)(投)(资)(成)(功)(之)(路)(的)(,是)(风)(险)(控)(制)(而)(不)(是)(冒)(进)(。在)(整)(个)(投)(资)(生)(涯)(中)(,大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(取)(得)(的)(结)(果)(将)(更)(多)(地)(取)(决)(于)(致)(败)(投)(资)(的)(数)(量)(及)(程)(度)(,而)(不)(是)(致)(胜)(投)(资)(的)(伟)(大)(。良)(好)(的)(风)(险)(控)(制)(是)(优)(秀)(投)(资)(者)(的)(标)(志)(。
周)(期)(永)(远)(胜)(在)(最)(后)(。任)(何)(东)(西)(都)(不)(可)(能)(朝)(同)(一)(个)(方)(向)(永)(远)(发)(展)(下)(去)(。树)(木)(不)(会)(长)(到)(天)(上)(,很)(少)(有)(东)(西)(会)(归)(零)(,坚)(持)(以)(今)(天)(的)(事)(件)(推)(测)(未)(来)(是)(对)(投)(资)(者)(的)(投)(资)(活)(动)(最)(大)(的)(伤)(害)(。
你)(不)(能)(预)(测)(,但)(你)(可)(以)(准)(备)(。我)(们)(永)(远)(不)(知)(道)(未)(来)(会)(发)(生)(什)(么)(,但)(是)(我)(们)(可)(以)(为)(可)(能)(性)(做)(好)(准)(备)(,减)(少)(它)(们)(带)(来)(的)(痛)(苦)(。法)(则)(一)(:多)(数)(事)(物)(都)(是)(周)(期)(性)(的)(。法)(则)(二)(:当)(别)(人)(忘)(记)(法)(则)(一)(时)(,某)(些)(最)(大)(的)(盈)(亏)(机)(会)(就)(会)(到)(来)(。
最)(危)(险)(的)(事)(:当)(投)(资)(者)(相)(信)(情)(况)(只)(会)(越)(来)(越)(好)(的)(时)(候)(,就)(进)(入)(了)(最)(危)(险)(的)(阶)(段)(。这)(样)(的)(想)(法)(毫)(无)(意)(义)(,但)(大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(会)(上)(当)(。这)(就)(是)(泡)(沫)(产)(生)(的)(原)(因)(——反)(之)(则)(会)(导)(致)(崩)(溃)(。
在)(钟)(摆)(的)(一)(个)(极)(端)(——最)(黑)(暗)(的)(极)(端)(——人)(们)(需)(要)(强)(大)(的)(分)(析)(力)(、客)(观)(性)(、决)(断)(力)(乃)(至)(想)(象)(力)(,才)(能)(相)(信)(一)(切)(将)(会)(更)(好)(。少)(数)(具)(备)(这)(些)(能)(力)(的)(人)(能)(够)(在)(极)(低)(风)(险)(的)(基)(础)(上)(获)(得)(高)(额)(利)(润)(。但)(在)(另)(一)(个)(极)(端)(,当)(人)(人)(开)(始)(推)(测)(未)(来)(、价)(格)(永)(远)(以)(不)(可)(思)(议)(的)(速)(度)(上)(涨)(时)(——痛)(苦)(的)(损)(失)(已)(悄)(然)(奠)(定)(了)(基)(础)(。
我)(们)(能)(肯)(定)(的)(事)(情)(之)(一)(是)(,极)(端)(市)(场)(行)(为)(会)(发)(生)(逆)(转)(。相)(信)(钟)(摆)(将)(朝)(着)(一)(个)(方)(向)(永)(远)(摆)(动)(——或)(永)(远)(停)(留)(在)(端)(点)(的)(人)(,最)(终)(将)(损)(失)(惨)(重)(。了)(解)(钟)(摆)(行)(为)(的)(人)(则)(将)(受)(益)(无)(穷)(。
一)(个)(在)(孤)(立)(环)(境)(下)(感)(觉)(快)(乐)(的)(人)(,当)(他)(看)(到)(别)(人)(做)(的)(更)(好)(时)(,可)(能)(会)(变)(得)(痛)(苦)(不)(堪)(。在)(投)(资)(领)(域)(,投)(资)(者)(大)(多)(难)(以)(坐)(视)(别)(人)(比)(自)(己)(多)(这)(一)(事)(实)(。
成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(之)(路)(往)(往)(以)(谦)(卑)(而)(不)(是)(自)(负)(为)(特)(征)(。
如)(果)(一)(个)(牛)(市)(强)(大)(到)(可)(以)(令)(成)(年)(人)(无)(视)(过)(高)(的)(估)(价)(甚)(至)(承)(认)(永)(动)(机)(的)(可)(能)(性)(,凭)(什)(么)(它)(不)(会)(对)(你)(产)(生)(同)(样)(的)(影)(响)(?如)(果)(一)(个)(无)(限)(损)(失)(的)(故)(事)(恐)(怖)(到)(令)(别)(人)(廉)(价)(抛)(售)(,又)(有)(什)(么)(能)(阻)(止)(它)(不)(令)(你)(做)(同)(样)(的)(事)(情)(?
你)(或)(许)(会)(有)(一)(段)(时)(间)(看)(起)(来)(是)(错)(误)(的)(。而)(群)(体)(成)(员)(似)(乎)((或)(感)(觉)()是)(正)(确)(的)(。将)(自)(己)(与)(他)(人)(进)(行)(过)(多)(的)(比)(较)(是)(一)(种)(侵)(蚀)(意)(志)(的)(过)(程)(——虽)(然)(这)(是)(天)(性)(使)(然)(——而)(且)(,这)(也)(会)(给)(你)(施)(加)(过)(多)(的)(压)(力)(。
对)(内)(在)(价)(值)(有)(坚)(定)(的)(认)(识)(,当)(价)(格)(偏)(离)(价)(值)(时)(,坚)(持)(做)(该)(做)(的)(事)(。一)(定)(要)(记)(住)(,当)(事)(情)(看)(起)(来)(“好)(的)(不)(像)(是)(真)(的)(”时)(,它)(们)(通)(常)(不)(是)(真)(的)(。当)(市)(场)(错)(误)(估)(价)(的)(程)(度)(越)(来)(越)(深)((始)(终)(如)(此)()以)(致)(自)(己)(貌)(似)(犯)(错)(的)(时)(候)(,愿)(意)(承)(受)(这)(样)(的)(结)(果)(。
在)(别)(人)(沮)(丧)(地)(抛)(售)(时)(买)(进)(、在)(别)(人)(兴)(奋)(的)(买)(进)(时)(抛)(售)(都)(需)(要)(最)(大)(的)(勇)(气)(,但)(它)(能)(带)(来)(最)(大)(的)(收)(益)(。
我)(只)(能)(用)(一)(个)(词)(来)(描)(述)(大)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(——趋)(势)(跟)(踪)(者)(,而)(杰)(出)(投)(资)(者)(恰)(恰)(相)(反)(。
某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(来)(说)(,趋)(势)(、群)(体)(共)(识)(是)(阻)(碍)(成)(功)(的)(因)(素)(,雷)(同)(的)(投)(资)(组)(合)(是)(我)(们)(需)(要)(避)(开)(的)(。由)(于)(市)(场)(的)(钟)(摆)(式)(摆)(动)(或)(市)(场)(的)(周)(期)(性)(,所)(以)(取)(得)(最)(终)(胜)(利)(的)(关)(键)(在)(于)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(。
投)(资)(最)(有)(趣)(的)(一)(件)(事)(是)(它)(的)(矛)(盾)(性)(:最)(显)(而)(易)(见)(、人)(人)(赞)(同)(的)(事)(,最)(终)(往)(往)(被)(证)(明)(是)(错)(误)(的)(。
如)(果)(人)(人)(都)(喜)(欢)(它)(,那)(么)(有)(可)(能)(价)(格)(已)(经)(高)(到)(受)(人)(追)(捧)(的)(水)(平)(,增)(值)(空)(间)(可)(能)(相)(对)(较)(小)(。当)(然)(,从)(估)(价)(过)(高)(到)(估)(价)(更)(高)(是)(有)(可)(能)(的)(,但)(我)(并)(不)(指)(望)(这)(种)(情)(况)(会)(发)(生)(。
买)(进)(人)(人)(喜)(欢)(的)(股)(票)(不)(会)(赚)(大)(钱)(,买)(进)(被)(大)(众)(低)(估)(的)(股)(票)(才)(会)(赚)(大)(钱)(。
当)(刀)(子)(停)(止)(下)(落)(,尘)(埃)(已)(然)(落)(定)(,不)(确)(定)(性)(得)(到)(解)(决)(的)(时)(候)(,利)(润)(丰)(厚)(的)(特)(价)(股)(也)(将)(不)(复)(存)(在)(。当)(买)(进)(某)(种)(东)(西)(再)(次)(让)(人)(感)(觉)(安)(稳)(的)(时)(候)(,它)(的)(价)(格)(再)(也)(不)(会)(那)(么)(便)(宜)(,因)(此)(投)(资)(中)(利)(润)(丰)(厚)(和)(令)(人)(安)(稳)(通)(常)(是)(矛)(盾)(的)(。作)(为)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(者)(,我)(们)(的)(任)(务)(就)(是)(尽)(可)(能)(谨)(慎)(熟)(练)(地)(接)(住)(下)(落)(的)(刀)(子)(。这)(也)(是)(内)(在)(价)(值)(的)(概)(念)(如)(此)(重)(要)(的)(原)(因)(。如)(果)(我)(们)(对)(价)(值)(的)(认)(识)(能)(够)(让)(我)(们)(在)(别)(人)(都)(卖)(出)(的)(时)(候)(买)(——并)(且)(我)(们)(的)(观)(点)(事)(后)(被)(证)(明)(是)(正)(确)(的)(——那)(么)(这)(就)(是)(以)(最)(低)(风)(险)(获)(取)(最)(高)(回)(报)(的)(途)(径)(。
第)(一)(层)(次)(思)(维)(者)(倾)(向)(于)(将)(过)(去)(的)(价)(格)(疲)(软)(视)(为)(负)(担)(,而)(不)(是)(资)(产)(更)(为)(廉)(价)(的)(标)(志)(。
市)(场)(不)(是)(有)(求)(必)(应)(的)(机)(器)(,它)(不)(会)(仅)(仅)(因)(为)(你)(需)(要)(就)(提)(供)(高)(额)(收)(益)(。我)(们)(并)(不)(是)(总)(有)(伟)(大)(的)(事)(情)(等)(着)(我)(们)(去)(做)(,耐)(心)(等)(待)(机)(会)(——等)(待)(便)(宜)(货)(——往)(往)(是)(最)(好)(的)(策)(略)(。
等)(待)(投)(资)(机)(会)(到)(来)(而)(不)(是)(追)(逐)(投)(资)(机)(会)(,你)(会)(做)(得)(更)(好)(。
投)(资)(者)(不)(会)(被)(三)(振)(出)(局)(,所)(以)(他)(们)(不)(必)(承)(受)(行)(动)(的)(压)(力)(。他)(们)(可)(以)(错)(过)(无)(数)(机)(会)(,直)(到)(一)(个)(极)(好)(的)(机)(会)(出)(现)(在)(眼)(前)(。
进)(行)(有)(效)(的)(客)(户)(管)(理)(的)(关)(键)(总)(是)(在)(于)(——降)(低)(他)(们)(的)(期)(待)(。你)(可)(以)(给)(客)(户)(鲜)(明)(的)(表)(达)(信)(念)(:投)(资)(失)(败)(比)(失)(去)(一)(个)(获)(利)(机)(会)(更)(值)(得)(重)(视)(。这)(样)(让)(客)(户)(将)(风)(险)(控)(制)(放)(在)(全)(盘)(获)(利)(之)(前)(的)(心)(理)(准)(备)(。
再)(次)(强)(调)(,高)(价)(会)(同)(时)(增)(加)(风)(险)(和)(降)(低)(收)(益)(。
坚)(信)(价)(值)(,少)(用)(或)(者)(不)(用)(杠)(杆)(,拥)(有)(长)(期)(资)(本)(和)(顽)(强)(的)(意)(志)(力)(。在)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(态)(度)(和)(强)(大)(资)(产)(负)(债)(表)(的)(支)(撑)(下)(,耐)(心)(地)(等)(待)(机)(会)(,便)(能)(在)(灾)(难)(中)(收)(获)(惊)(人)(的)(收)(益)(。
我)(们)(有)(两)(类)(预)(言)(家)(:无)(知)(的)(和)(不)(知)(道)(自)(己)(无)(知)(的)(。
想)(到)(自)(己)(不)(知)(道)(某)(些)(事)(情)(令)(人)(忧)(心)(,而)(想)(到)(这)(个)(世)(界)(在)(被)(一)(群)(自)(以)(为)(是)(的)(人)(控)(制)(着)(,则)(令)(人)(恐)(惧)(。
赔)(钱)(的)(人)(有)(两)(种)(:一)(无)(所)(知)(的)(和)(无)(所)(不)(知)(的)(。
我)(们)(不)(知)(道)(一)(个)(趋)(势)(会)(持)(续)(多)(久)(,不)(知)(道)(它)(何)(时)(反)(转)(,也)(不)(知)(道)(导)(致)(反)(转)(的)(因)(素)(以)(及)(反)(转)(的)(程)(度)(。但)(是)(我)(相)(信)(,趋)(势)(迟)(早)(都)(会)(终)(止)(。没)(有)(任)(何)(东)(西)(能)(够)(永)(远)(存)(在)(。
在)(成)(功)(的)(时)(候)(,运)(气)(看)(起)(来)(像)(技)(能)(,巧)(合)(看)(起)(来)(像)(因)(果)(,幸)(运)(的)(傻)(瓜)(看)(起)(来)(像)(专)(业)(的)(投)(资)(者)(。
长)(期)(来)(看)(,好)(的)(决)(策)(一)(定)(会)(带)(来)(投)(资)(收)(益)(。然)(而)(在)(短)(期)(内)(,当)(好)(的)(决)(策)(无)(法)(带)(来)(投)(资)(收)(益)(的)(时)(候)(,我)(们)(必)(须)(忍)(耐)(。
有)(老)(投)(资)(者)(,也)(有)(大)(胆)(的)(投)(资)(者)(,但)(没)(有)(大)(胆)(的)(老)(投)(资)(者)(。
获)(利)(通)(常)(取)(决)(于)(对)(未)(来)(事)(件)(的)(正)(确)(判)(断)(,而)(将)(损)(失)(最)(小)(化)(只)(需)(有)(形)(资)(产)(价)(值)(已)(知)(、大)(众)(预)(期)(稳)(健)(并)(且)(资)(产)(价)(格)(较)(低)(即)(可)(。
许)(多)(投)(资)(经)(理)(的)(生)(涯)(之)(所)(以)(终)(结)(,不)(是)(因)(为)(他)(们)(打)(不)(出)(“本)(垒)(打)(”,而)(是)(因)(为)(他)(们)(被)(“三)(振)(出)(局)(”的)(次)(数)(太)(多)(——不)(是)(因)(为)(他)(们)(的)(制)(胜)(球)(不)(够)(,而)(是)(因)(为)(他)(们)(的)(失)(误)(球)(太)(多)(。但)(是)(,许)(多)(投)(资)(经)(理)(仍)(在)(前)(赴)(后)(继)(地)(追)(求)(“本)(垒)(打)(”。
避)(免)(致)(败)(投)(资)(,致)(胜)(投)(资)(自)(然)(会)(来)(。这)(是)(我)(们)(最)(初)(的)(也)(是)(永)(远)(的)(信)(条)(。
我)(们)(追)(求)(安)(打)(率)(,而)(不)(是)(本)(垒)(打)(。我)(们)(知)(道)(其)(他)(人)(会)(因)(为)(巨)(大)(的)(胜)(利)(和)(辉)(煌)(的)(赛)(季)(成)(绩)(而)(占)(据)(头)(条)(,但)(是)(,我)(们)(希)(望)(自)(己)(能)(以)(令)(客)(户)(满)(意)(的)(持)(之)(以)(恒)(的)(良)(好)(表)(现)(坚)(持)(到)(最)(后)(。
除)(了)(专)(业)(技)(术)(,积)(极)(进)(取)(型)(投)(资)(也)(需)(要)(有)(勇)(气)(、有)(耐)(心)(的)(客)(户)(和)(可)(靠)(的)(资)(本)(。当)(形)(势)(不)(利)(时)(,你)(需)(要)(这)(些)(因)(素)(支)(撑)(你)(读)(过)(难)(关)(。
管)(理)(高)(风)(险)(投)(资)(组)(合)(就)(像)(一)(场)(没)(有)(护)(网)(的)(高)(空)(钢)(丝)(表)(演)(。成)(功)(的)(回)(报)(可)(能)(会)(很)(高)(,你)(会)(赢)(得)(惊)(呼)(与)(赞)(叹)(,但)(是)(失)(误)(也)(会)(置)(你)(于)(死)(地)(。
谨)(慎)(能)(帮)(助)(我)(们)(避)(免)(错)(误)(,但)(它)(也)(会)(阻)(止)(我)(们)(取)(得)(伟)(大)(的)(成)(就)(。最)(好)(的)(投)(资)(者)(具)(备)(以)(下)(特)(征)(:敬)(畏)(投)(资)(,要)(求)(物)(有)(所)(值)(和)(高)(错)(误)(边)(际)(,知)(所)(不)(知)(,知)(所)(不)(能)(。
如)(果)(你)(十)(分)(抗)(拒)(犯)(错)(,你)(绝)(不)(会)(适)(应)(孤)(独)(——这)(伴)(随)(着)(严)(格)(意)(义)(上)(的)(成)(功)(的)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(。
防)(御)(型)(投)(资)(听)(起)(来)(很)(高)(深)(,不)(过)(我)(可)(以)(简)(化)(为)(:敬)(畏)(投)(资)(!担)(心)(损)(失)(的)(可)(能)(性)(。担)(心)(有)(自)(己)(不)(知)(道)(的)(东)(西)(。担)(心)(自)(己)(虽)(能)(做)(出)(高)(质)(量)(的)(决)(策)(,但)(仍)(会)(遭)(受)(厄)(运)(和)(突)(发)(事)(件)(的)(打)(击)(。敬)(畏)(投)(资)(能)(避)(免)(自)(大)(,令)(你)(保)(持)(警)(惕)(和)(大)(脑)(活)(跃)(;能)(令)(你)(坚)(持)(充)(足)(的)(安)(全)(边)(际)(,提)(高)(投)(资)(组)(合)(应)(对)(恶)(劣)(形)(式)(的)(能)(力)(。如)(果)(不)(犯)(错)(,制)(胜)(投)(资)(自)(然)(会)(来)(。
投)(资)(者)(几)(乎)(无)(须)(做)(对)(什)(么)(事)(,他)(只)(需)(能)(够)(避)(免)(犯)(重)(大)(错)(误)(。
普)(通)(投)(资)(者)(能)(够)(避)(免)(错)(误)(就)(是)(万)(幸)(,而)(优)(秀)(投)(资)(者)(期)(待)(的)(却)(是)(从)(错)(误)(中)(获)(利)(。
技)(艺)(精)(湛)(的)(投)(资)(者)(实)(质)(上)(是)(在)(践)(行)(理)(解)(投)(资)(的)(过)(程)(,而)(不)(是)(仅)(仅)(对)(近)(期)(收)(益)(进)(行)(估)(算)(。
在)(市)(场)(繁)(荣)(期)(,达)(到)(平)(均)(表)(现)(即)(可)(。在)(繁)(荣)(期)(人)(人)(都)(能)(赚)(钱)(,为)(什)(么)(一)(定)(要)(在)(市)(场)(表)(现)(良)(好)(的)(时)(候)(战)(胜)(市)(场)(呢)(?在)(繁)(荣)(期)(达)(到)(平)(均)(表)(现)(就)(足)(够)(了)(。不)(过)(有)(一)(个)(时)(期)(是)(我)(们)(认)(为)(有)(必)(要)(战)(胜)(市)(场)(的)(,那)(就)(是)(在)(衰)(退)(期)(。我)(们)(的)(客)(户)(不)(愿)(首)(当)(其)(冲)(面)(对)(市)(场)(损)(失)(,我)(们)(也)(不)(愿)(意)(这)(样)(。
我)(们)(的)(目)(标)(是)(,在)(市)(场)(表)(现)(良)(好)(时)(与)(市)(场)(表)(现)(一)(致)(,在)(市)(场)(表)(现)(不)(好)(时)(超)(越)(市)(场)(的)(表)(现)(。初)(看)(似)(乎)(过)(于)(稳)(健)(,但)(实)(际)(上)(这)(是)(一)(个)(相)(当)(宏)(达)(的)(目)(标)(。
较)(高)(的)(收)(益)(是)(反)(常)(的)(,要)(实)(现)(这)(一)(目)(标)(需)(要)(结)(合)(以)(下)(这)(些)(要)(求)(:在)(极)(度)(低)(迷)(的)(市)(场)(环)(境)(中)(买)(进)((希)(望)(能)(有)(一)(个)(良)(好)(的)(卖)(出)(环)(境)(),杰)(出)(的)(投)(资)(能)(力)(,强)(大)(的)(风)(险)(承)(受)(能)(力)(,强)(有)(力)(的)(杠)(杆)(,或)(者)(是)(,好)(运)(气)(。因)(此)(投)(资)(者)(应)(该)(这)(样)(来)(追)(逐)(收)(益)(——只)(有)(自)(己)(相)(信)(这)(些)(要)(素)(中)(的)(一)(部)(分)(,并)(且)(愿)(意)(为)(此)(下)(赌)(注)(。然)(而)(在)(某)(种)(程)(度)(上)(,这)(其)(中)(任)(意)(一)(项)(都)(是)(会)(有)(问)(题)(的)(。
如)(果)(一)(个)(经)(济)(学)(家)(或)(分)(析)(师)(向)(你)(**一)(种)(“在)(未)(来)(肯)(定)(会)(发)(生)(的)(”观)(点)(时)(,你)(应)(该)(质)(疑)(一)(下)(,既)(然)(金)(融)(衍)(生)(工)(具)(可)(以)(被)(用)(来)(将)(正)(确)(的)(预)(测)(转)(变)(为)(巨)(额)(收)(益)((无)(须)(投)(入)(大)(量)(资)(金)(),那)(么)(他)(为)(什)(么)(仍)(然)(在)(为)(生)(计)(奔)(波)(?
如)(果)(价)(格)(在)(下)(跌)(时)(,我)(们)(选)(择)(买)(进)(,而)(别)(人)(却)(以)(“没)(有)(必)(要)(空)(手)(接)(落)(刀)(”为)(借)(口)(不)(敢)(行)(动)(。不)(过)(,当)(刀)(如)(雨)(下)(的)(时)(候)(,最)(好)(的)(交)(易)(往)(往)(是)(在)(此)(刻)(应)(运)(而)(生)(。
伏)(尔)(泰)(曾)(经)(说)(过)(一)(句)(至)(理)(名)(言)(:“完)(美)(是)(优)(秀)(的)(敌)(人)(。”这)(对)(于)(投)(资)(领)(域)(极)(为)(适)(用)(,只)(有)(当)(条)(件)(达)(到)(完)(美)(时)(,人)(们)(才)(会)(坚)(持)(投)(资)(——例)(如)(,只)(在)(低)(谷)(时)(买)(进)(——这)(会)(令)(你)(错)(失)(很)(多)(机)(会)(。在)(投)(资)(中)(坚)(持)(完)(美)(往)(往)(会)(一)(无)(所)(获)(,我)(们)(所)(能)(期)(待)(的)(最)(佳)(情)(况)(是)(尽)(可)(能)(地)(进)(行)(大)(量)(的)(明)(智)(投)(资)(,在)(最)(大)(程)(度)(上)(回)(避)(糟)(糕)(的)(投)(资)(。
成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(或)(成)(功)(的)(投)(资)(生)(涯)(的)(基)(础)(是)(价)(值)(,你)(必)(须)(清)(楚)(地)(认)(识)(到)(你)(想)(买)(进)(的)(东)(西)(的)(价)(值)(。价)(值)(包)(括)(很)(多)(方)(面)(,并)(且)(有)(很)(多)(考)(察)(方)(法)(。简)(单)(来)(说)(,就)(是)(账)(面)(现)(金)(价)(值)(和)(有)(形)(资)(产)(价)(值)(,公)(司)(或)(资)(产)(产)(生)(现)(金)(流)(的)(能)(力)(,以)(及)(所)(有)(这)(些)(东)(西)(的)(增)(值)(潜)(力)(。
为)(取)(得)(卓)(越)(的)(投)(资)(结)(果)(,你)(必)(须)(对)(价)(值)(有)(深)(刻)(的)(洞)(察)(。因)(此)(你)(必)(须)(学)(会)(别)(人)(不)(会)(的)(东)(西)(,以)(不)(同)(的)(视)(角)(看)(待)(问)(题)(,或)(者)(对)(问)(题)(分)(析)(得)(更)(到)(位)(——最)(好)(三)(者)(都)(能)(做)(到)(。
除)(了)(提)(高)(获)(利)(潜)(力)(之)(外)(,以)(低)(于)(价)(值)(的)(价)(格)(买)(进)(还)(是)(限)(制)(风)(险)(的)(关)(键)(因)(素)(。买)(进)(成)(长)(型)(股)(票)(或)(者)(参)(与)(“热)(门)(”动)(量)(市)(场)(都)(起)(不)(到)(这)(样)(的)(作)(用)(。
价)(格)(和)(价)(值)(的)(关)(系)(受)(心)(理)(和)(技)(术)(的)(影)(响)(,这)(是)(两)(种)(可)(以)(在)(短)(期)(内)(主)(导)(基)(本)(面)(的)(力)(量)(。这)(两)(个)(因)(素)(所)(致)(的)(极)(端)(价)(格)(波)(动)(提)(供)(了)(获)(利)(或)(失)(误)(的)(机)(会)(。为)(了)(得)(到)(前)(者)(而)(不)(是)(后)(者)(,你)(必)(须)(坚)(持)(价)(值)(的)(概)(念)(并)(应)(对)(心)(理)(和)(技)(术)(因)(素)(。
经)(济)(与)(市)(场)(周)(期)(上)(下)(波)(动)(。无)(论)(此)(刻)(它)(们)(朝)(向)(哪)(个)(方)(向)(运)(动)(,都)(会)(有)(大)(多)(数)(人)(相)(信)(它)(们)(会)(朝)(着)(这)(个)(方)(向)(永)(远)(走)(下)(去)(。这)(样)(的)(思)(想)(非)(常)(危)(险)(,因)(为)(它)(会)(扰)(乱)(市)(场)(,将)(价)(格)(推)(向)(极)(端)(,引)(发)(多)(数)(投)(资)(者)(难)(以)(承)(受)(的)(泡)(沫)(与)(恐)(慌)(。
同)(样)(投)(资)(者)(的)(群)(体)(心)(理)(也)(呈)(现)(有)(规)(律)(的)(钟)(摆)(式)(波)(动)(——从)(乐)(观)(到)(悲)(观)(,从)(轻)(信)(到)(怀)(疑)(,从)(唯)(恐)(错)(失)(良)(机)(到)(害)(怕)(遭)(受)(损)(失)(,从)(急)(于)(买)(进)(到)(迫)(切)(卖)(出)(。钟)(摆)(的)(摆)(动)(导)(致)(人)(们)(高)(买)(低)(卖)(。因)(此)(,作)(为)(群)(体)(中)(的)(一)(员)(注)(定)(是)(一)(场)(灾)(难)(,而)(极)(端)(时)(的)(逆)(向)(投)(资)(则)(可)(能)(避)(免)(损)(失)(,取)(得)(最)(后)(的)(胜)(利)(。
大)(多)(数)(趋)(势)(——看)(涨)(与)(看)(跌)(——最)(终)(总)(会)(发)(展)(过)(度)(。较)(早)(意)(识)(到)(这)(一)(点)(的)(人)(会)(因)(此)(获)(利)(,较)(晚)(参)(与)(进)(来)(的)(人)(则)(因)(此)(而)(收)(到)(惩)(罚)(。由)(此)(推)(导)(出)(我)(最)(要)(的)(一)(句)(投)(资)(格)(言)(:“智)(者)(始)(而)(愚)(者)(终)(。”抵)(制)(过)(度)(的)(能)(力)(是)(罕)(见)(的)(,但)(却)(是)(大)(多)(数)(成)(功)(投)(资)(者)(所)(具)(备)(的)(重)(要)(特)(质)(。
在)(形)(势)(按)(照)(我)(们)(的)(预)(期)(发)(展)(之)(前)(,也)(可)(能)(会)(有)(很)(长)(一)(段)(时)(间)(对)(我)(们)(不)(利)(。“定)(价)(过)(低)(”绝)(不)(等)(同)(于)(“很)(快)(上)(涨)(”。这)(就)(是)(我)(第)(二)(句)(重)(要)(的)(格)(言)(:“过)(于)(超)(前)(与)(犯)(错)(没)(有)(区)(别)(”在)(证)(明)(我)(们)(的)(正)(确)(性)(之)(前)(,我)(们)(需)(要)(足)(够)(的)(耐)(心)(与)(毅)(力)(长)(期)(坚)(持)(我)(们)(的)(立)(场)(。
永)(远)(不)(要)(忘)(记)(一)(个)(6英)(尺)(高)(的)(人)(可)(能)(淹)(死)(在)(平)(均)(5英)(尺)(的)(小)(河)(里)(。错)(误)(边)(际)(能)(带)(给)(你)(持)(久)(力)(,帮)(你)(渡)(过)(市)(场)(低)(迷)(期)(。
投)(资)(成)(功)(的)(基)(本)(要)(求)(之)(一)(,也)(是)(最)(伟)(大)(的)(投)(资)(者)(的)(必)(备)(心)(理)(之)(一)(,是)(认)(识)(到)(我)(们)(无)(法)(预)(知)(宏)(观)(未)(来)(。很)(少)(有)(人)(对)(未)(来)(经)(济)(、利)(率)(、市)(场)(总)(量)(有)(超)(越)(群)(体)(共)(识)(的)(看)(法)(。因)(此)(,投)(资)(者)(的)(时)(间)(最)(好)(用)(在)(获)(取)(“可)(知)(”的)(知)(识)(优)(势)(上)(:行)(业)(、公)(司)(、证)(券)(相)(关)(信)(息)(。你)(对)(微)(观)(越)(关)(注)(,你)(越)(有)(可)(能)(比)(别)(人)(了)(解)(得)(更)(多)(。
保)(持)(正)(确)(的)(关)(键)(在)(于)(避)(免)(经)(济)(波)(动)(、公)(司)(困)(境)(、市)(场)(震)(荡)(以)(及)(投)(资)(者)(轻)(信)(所)(带)(来)(的)(错)(误)(。虽)(然)(没)(有)(避)(免)(错)(误)(的)(必)(胜)(方)(法)(,但)(是)(毫)(无)(疑)(问)(,意)(识)(到)(这)(些)(潜)(在)(危)(险)(就)(是)(避)(免)(深)(受)(其)(害)(的)(良)(好)(开)(端)(。
无)(论)(是)(在)(衰)(退)(期)(限)(制)(损)(失)(的)(防)(御)(型)(投)(资)(者)(,还)(是)(在)(繁)(荣)(期)(争)(取)(收)(益)(的)(积)(极)(型)(投)(资)(者)(都)(已)(经)(证)(明)(自)(己)(是)(有)(技)(术)(的)(。想)(要)(得)(到)(投)(资)(者)(真)(的)(是)(在)(提)(升)(价)(值)(的)(结)(论)(,我)(们)(必)(须)(考)(察)(他)(们)(在)(与)(自)(己)(投)(资)(风)(格)(不)(相)(符)(的)(环)(境)(下)(的)(表)(现)(。
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